Australian retail sales data are due at 0030 GMT (this is 1930 US ET and 11.30am in Sydney):
Snippet from National Australia Bank's preview:
- Shifting seasonal patterns put the risk firmly to the downside in our view, and NAB pencils in a -1.0%, but with high uncertainty.
- Black Friday pulling spending into November drove the 1.4% m/m November print, and the converse should weigh on the December number even amid underlying resilience in spending.
- If we do get a milder decline in December, watch for downward revisions to the November number.
Via Westpac:
- Our Westpac Card Tracker and other measures point to conditions remaining buoyant through Dec. That said, retail components were softer with gains in card activity centring non-retail segments like travel and recreational services. The high weighting of food (accounting for just over half of retail) also looks to have been a drag, some of which may be price-related.
- On balance we expect nominal sales to decline 0.3% in Dec. Note that the final Dec release, including Q4 real retail sales estimates, will be published on Feb 6.
