US equities are set for another gain today with S&P 500 futures up 0.6%.
They rallied after US unemployment rose to 3.8% from 3.5%. The caveat for corporation is that rising unemployment came on a surge of people entering the labor force, which increases labor availability and dims wage pressure. The economy also added 187K jobs, above the 170K consensus so that argues the economy is still strong.
It's a bit of a goldilocks scenario for stocks and signals a soft landing or no landing. That said, the evidence of a slowing economy is mounting and at some point that won't be good news for stocks. For now, the market is still pricing in a 36% chance of a Fed hike in November. I expect that to slowly be priced out and the market to cheer as it falls.
However once that's done, the question will turn to rate cuts and that's when the market could kick and scream, especially as the Fed continues to signal that it will hold rates high for longer.
Can the S&P 500 make a new high before then? Maybe it can take out the July high but the 2021 high is a bigger hurdle and the first signs of a storm on the horizon are forming.
