Bank of America say that with EUR/USD on approach to their year-end target of 1.12 the pair has limited upside:
- market expectations for Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest-rate cuts are fully priced now for 2024
(
I'll just pop in that after Powell spoke on Monday those expectations looked to have been overpriced for the Fed:
- US dollar rises, stocks fall as Powell higher GDI and base case to cut 25 bps
- USD moving higher as Powell taps the brakes on cuts
)
BoA go on:
- EUR/USD should rise again in 2025, weaker dollar impacting
- “Our thesis remains that Fed policy easing in a US soft landing will weaken the dollar from an overvalued level.”
- target 1.15 by Q2 next year
- holds a long now with stop loss at 1.10 (raised from 1.04 previously)
- end-2024 target is 1.12
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EUR/USD update:
