We've spent the past five weeks beating up risk assets.
Part of that was the fear of the Fed going into hiking overdrive. Powell put that fear to rest today by taking 75 bps off the table for the next two meetings.
That's a fundamental life raft for risk assets. It's a backing for a trade that's way oversold to rebound. That's what I expect to happen, leading to some consolidation within that five week range until we see what happens with economic data .
If that doesn't happen, it's dire. This is a wonderful setup for a multi-week bounce but if this gain can't sustain itself for a week or two, that's an ugly signal. It doesn't mean we don't get a scare and retest today's lows, but if those break then you have to be worried.
