Beige Book
Overall Economic Activity
- Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts
- Seven Districts reported some increase in activity, while five noted flat or declining activity
- Previously two noted no change in activity
Labor Markets
- Employment rose at a slight pace in most Districts
- More mentions of flat or declining employment
- Several Districts noted a slowing of wage growth due to increased worker availability and less competition for workers
- Wage growth continued at a modest to moderate pace
Consumer Spending
- Consumer spending was little changed overall.
- Auto sales varied across Districts, with some noting lower sales due to a cyberattack on dealerships and high interest rates .
Manufacturing
- Manufacturing activity was mixed, with reports ranging from brisk downturns to moderate growth
- Some Districts noted soft demand for manufactured goods .
Real Estate and Construction
- Residential real estate showed a typical seasonal slowdown with gradual increases in market inventory.
- Commercial real estate activity varied, with retail leasing picking up but office leasing remaining weak .
Banking and Finance
- Loan demand remained modest overall, with slight increases noted in specific loan types like home equity loans and used auto loans.
- Deposit levels continued to decline modestly .
Prices
- Prices increased at a modest pace overall, with some Districts reporting only slight increases (same as prior)
- Several Districts noted increased consumer price sensitivity and retailers discounting items .
Agriculture
- Agricultural conditions improved slightly, with strong sales reported by cattle farmers and optimism among poultry farmers.
- Weak demand continued for some row crops like cotton .
Outlook
- Expectations for future economic growth were for slower growth over the next six months, influenced by uncertainties around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation
The overall economic activity remains positive but is showing signs of slowing down. Consumer spending is stable but not growing and customers are more price-sensitive. The economy is still growing, but the pace is modest, and there are increasing indications of areas where growth is stalling or declining.
This could signal a soft landing but remember that every hard landing starts out as a soft landing.
