Economic activity remained largely unchanged in recent weeks, with nine Districts reporting little to no change and three noting modest growth. Consumer spending was mostly flat, while travel and tourism showed some improvement. Manufacturing activity was flat or down, as were transportation and freight volumes. Residential real estate sales and construction softened, while nonresidential activity remained unchanged. Lending volumes and loan demand declined, with banks tightening lending standards.
Employment growth moderated, with a few firms reporting mass layoffs and others focusing on critical roles. The labor market saw increased supply and better employee retention. Wage growth moderated but stayed elevated. Overall price levels continued to rise moderately, with input and freight costs declining. Selling price pressures eased in manufacturing and services, while consumer prices increased due to demand and higher costs. Home prices and rents stabilized at near record highs, with contacts expecting further relief from input cost pressures.
- Nine Districts reported either no change or only a slight change in activity this period while three indicated modest growth
- Overall price levels rise moderately; home prices and rents stabilize at near record highs.
- Expectations for future growth were mostly unchanged
- Economic activity largely unchanged, with modest growth in three Districts.
- Consumer spending flat; travel and tourism show improvement.
- Manufacturing activity and transportation volumes flat or down.
- Residential real estate softens; nonresidential activity remains steady.
- Lending volumes and loan demand decline; banks tighten lending standards.
- Employment growth moderates; labor market sees increased supply and better retention.
- Wage growth remains elevated but moderates.
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I think this gives the Fed leeway to hike once more and then wait, there is clearly some slowing here but also mixed ndications that the bank rout had a large impact.
The Cleveland Fed said "developments in the banking sector appeared to have very little impact on either recent economic activity or credit availability."
Boston said "credit was expected to tighten moving forward."
NY Fed said "credit standards tightened noticeably for all loan types."
Chicago said "Banking contacts reported some movement in deposits but little change in credit availability following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank."
