Earlier this week, the odds for a 50 bps rate hike in August were seen at around 66% but that has now dropped to roughly 41% with a 25 bps rate hike being favoured, with a probability of 59%. That comes after the UK CPI data here earlier today.
Meanwhile, money markets are now pricing a terminal rate of around 5.83% (in February next year) and that is down from roughly 6.04% yesterday. If you're wondering why is it that market pricing can swing so heavily just off of one data point, please do check out my post from yesterday here.
