The Bank of America fund manager survey is always a good read as it offers up some indications on which trades are over-crowded and which ones are under-loved.
This week's survey showed improving global sentiment on soft landing optimism but a big rotation into defensives and things that will benefit from lower rates like utilities (highest overweight since 2008) and away from cyclicals. So a contrarian trade would be long cyclicals or commodities, where allocations are at a 7-year low.
At the same time, 79% of investors see a soft landing, so there are mixed signals.
One clear signal is that China is hated. The percentage expecting a stronger Chinese economy is at the lowest in the three-year history of that question and worsening. That matches up with everything we've heard in markets. Everyone knows that China is cheap but no one wants to get involved until there is some real stimulus or a sign that Beijing truly cares.
Contrarian trades overall are long commodities, China, resources, tech, REITs, discretionary, and short bonds, utilities, staples and healthcare.
