A falling US dollar and hopes for a soft landing in the US led to a third rally in brent crude in the past four trading days. Oil climbed $1.04 to settle at $85.48, which is the highest intraday since August 21 and the highest settlement since Aug 14.
There is something of a 'buy everything' mode in markets today despite a round of poor US economic data today, including job openings and consumer confidence. The market is breathing a sign of relief that the Fed isn't going to hike further, or at least not meaningfully. That's led to a belief there will be a soft landing in the economy, with slow rate cuts to come next year.
To me, that all sounds a bit too optimistic but we will have to wait and see.
On the fundamental side, it's increasingly clear that the oil market is currently undersupplied as OPEC+ puts the screws to the market. The next big question is how long they are willing to continue. Saudi Arabia has already extended its voluntary cut through September but will likely be making an announcement about October next week.
After the US close, we will get the latest private inventory data. These guys have been bang-on lately:
