Canada August CPI 4.0% versus 3.8% expected

• Prior month 3.3%
• CPI MoM 0.4% % versus 0.3% expected
• Prior MoM 0.6%
• CPI YoY 4.0% % versus 3.8% expected

Core measures:

• BOC Core YoY 3.3% versus 3.2% last month
• BOC Core MoM 0.1% versus 0.5% last month
• CPI median 4.1% versus 3.9% last month (revised from 3.7%
• CPI Trim 3.9% versus 3.6% last month
• CPI Common 4.8% versus 4.8% last month

Highlights:

• The rise in August's CPI was majorly due to higher gasoline prices (+0.8%) compared to a decrease in July (-12.9%).
• Excluding gasoline, the CPI growth was consistent at 4.1% for both August and July.
• Canadians experienced higher rent, mortgage interest, and energy costs in August.
• Prices for travel-related services decreased, and food price growth slowed compared to the previous month.
• The monthly deceleration was largely due to drops in travel tours (-6.4%) and air transportation (-6.9%) prices after the July summer travel peak.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis, the monthly CPI growth was 0.6%.

The USDCAD moved to and below (lower USDCAD is a higher CAD) its 100-day moving average on the report at 1.3399 (see the lower blue line on the chart below). The price also moved below the 50% midpoint from the July low to the September high. That level comes in at 1.3393. However, the price stalled ahead of the August low price at 1.3370. The low price extended to 1.33776 before bouncing back higher.

The current price is trading just above the 100-day moving average of 1.3401. The 100-day moving average of 50% midpoint between 1.3393 and 1.3399 would need to be rebroken to increase the bearish bias.

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