Canada February retail sales +0.1% vs -0.4% expected

• March flash estimate +1.4%
• February flash estimate was -0.5%
• January reading was +3.2% (revised to +3.3%)
• Ex autos +2.1% vs 0.0% expected
• Prior ex autos +2.5%
• Ex autos and gas +1.4% vs +2.4% prior
• Sales up in 6 of 11 subsectors

The Canadian economy re-opened in March after lockdowns in Jan/Feb. The ongoing strength through the lockdowns and signs of further growth in March are positive. Canadians are riding high on a wave of home price appreciation but there is a big risk that some of that reverses.

Details:

• Clothing +15.1%
• Shoes +12.4%
• Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers +5.6% vs +8.9% prior (sixth gain in seven months)
• General merchandise stores -1.2%
• New auto sales -4.6% vs +5.5% prior
• E-commerce sales -23.1% vs -14.4% y/y prior

One worrisome sign is on autos, where sales of new vehicles were down 11.0% compared to Feb 2021; though we will have to wait until March to see if that was lockdown-induced or something more. Inventories are brutally tight and that could be a factor as well.

That ecommerce number doesn't bode well for Amazon.

Inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term is a bit of a factor as volumes were down 0.4% m/m in Feb. CAD is a touch stronger on the headlines but has been beaten up today on the broad USD bid.