- Prior month 2.9%
- CPI m/m -0.1% vs 0.0% expected
- Prior m/m +0.6% prior
Core measures
- CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.9% vs 1.8% prior
- CPI Bank of Canada core m/m -0.1% versus 0.6% prior
- Core CPI m/m SA +0.1% vs 0.3% prior
- Trim 2.9% versus 2.9% prior
- Median 2.6% versus 2.8% prior (prior revised to +2.7%)
- Common 2.3% versus 2.4% prior
This matches the lowest y/y reading since the pandemic and should be the final straw that confirms a July 24 rate cut (it's now 89% priced in). That would be back-to-back cuts and raises questions about whether the cut-every-meeting pace will be kept up.
USD/CAD jumped to 1.3687 from 1.3666 on this release but it was largely on the US dollar side as US retail sales crushed expectations.
The monthly decrease was driven by lower prices for travel tours (-11.1%) and gasoline (-3.1%).
Year over year, lower prices for durable goods (-1.8%) also contributed to the slowdown in the all-items CPI in June with auto prices down 0.4% y/y. Moderating the deceleration was an increase in prices for food purchased from stores (+2.1%), as well as a smaller decline for cellular services in June (-12.8%) compared with May (-19.4%).
