Canadian trade balance April 22
  • Prior was +2.66B (revised to 3.08B)
  • Exports $63.63B vs $61.76B expected (prior $59.84B)
  • Imports $61.14B vs $58.11B expected (prior $56.76B)
  • Canadian surplus with US hits record $12.6B vs $10.9B prior

This is a better report for CAD than the headline indicates. That jump up in exports is sustainable so long as commodity prices remain high. There was a surprise rise in oil imports into Canada and suggestions that Canadian refineries on the east coast were stockpiling crude from the Middle East and Africa. Consumer goods were also strong on the import side at +6.5% in an indication of either inventory building or a strong consumer. It could also be variance in a series that's been spotty.

I wouldn't be surprised if Canada eventually gets to +6-8B trade surpluses at some point this decade. If that happens, the loonie will need to make meaningful gains.