Canada October S&P Global manufacturing PMI 48.8 vs 49.8 prior

• Prior was 49.8
• Prices down for the fourth consecutive month
• CAD weakness creating upward inflationary pressure
• Firms often mentioned that high prices deterred demand
• New orders fell 'solidly'
• Delivery delays were the least-pronounced since covid

This reads like the kind of thing that the Bank of Canada wants to see as the pivot unfolds. They hiked less than expected last week and data points like this are why.

Commenting on the latest survey results, Shreeya Patel, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

"October PMI data for Canada alluded to a weaker manufacturing performance as output and new orders fell concurrently and for the fourth month in a row. The rates of decline also quickened from those seen in September and were among the strongest in the survey's 12-year history.

"Concerns also came on the employment front with headcounts falling for the third month in succession, and panellists continuing to mention a lack of availability of skilled staff.

"Manufacturing businesses in Canada are continuing to consider their plans for the future, especially as the economic environment becomes increasingly difficult to navigate. Panel comments indicated higher interest rates and growing concerns of a recession weighed on output projections for the year ahead which slumped to a 29-month low.

"Positives can however be drawn from prices data which signalled another moderation in input cost inflation. Firms have also reacted quickly to the recent weakness in the Canadian dollar - which they hope is a temporary blip - by hiking their selling charges to protect profits."

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