National Bank highlights the dim prospects in the Canadian jobs market:
- Private sector job growth anemic at just 0.2% in first 8 months of 2024
- Labour force grew 2.0% in same period - largest gap outside of recession
- Private sector job vacancy rate plummets to lowest level since 2016
- CFIB data shows SMEs less concerned about labour shortages
- NBF economists expect unemployment to rise above 7% in next 6 months (from 6.6% currently)
- Public sector hiring in 2024 prevented even worse damage to labour market
The bottom line: Canada's restrictive monetary policy is taking a heavy toll on the private sector job market. Without strong public sector hiring, the situation would be even more dire. National Bank sees more labour market pain ahead as well.
