Citi expects the S&P 500 to make new highs in 2024:
- earnings growth is expected to broaden
- S&P 500 companies reporting positive year-over-year earnings growth is expected to increase
- fewer stocks likely to experience significant EPS declines compared to both 2023 and the 5-year average pre-pandemic
- “We continue to focus on the earnings resilience thesis despite lingering concerns about the economic outlook, which have been more acute of late given some softness in consumer-related reports and commentary”
- “the bottom falling out of S&P 500 EPS is a tail risk. A more resilient fundamental backdrop should support a higher equity floor even if sentiment and multiples sour”
Macroeconomic concerns are expected to persist:
- particularly around the consumer in the near term
- fiscal impulses in the longer term
Says the primary risk to equity markets lies in the multiple investors will assign to EPS, rather than the fundamentals themselves, particularly in the event of a clear recession.
Info via Street Insider, gated.
