Reuters have the piece from a Citi report on politics / oil.
In brief:
Trump presidency could be net bearish for oil prices
- combination of factors including tariffs and oil-friendly policies, and pushing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to release more oil into the market
The main bullish risk for oil markets under a Trump presidency would be would be pressure on Iran, though this could have a limited impact.
- a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, the market could see a 500-900 thousand barrel per day impact on Iranian oil exports
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More immediately, Citi enumerate known risks:
- hurricane season is far from over
- Mideast tensions remain high ... pressure has also been mounting for a push for a ceasefire, which could conceivably be forthcoming this summer
