CPI seals the case for 75 basis points - Timiraos

The WSJ leaker-in-chief, Nick Timiraos is out with his post-CPI report and says it 'seals the case' for 75 basis points on November 2.

"The report also raises the risk officials will delay an anticipated slowdown in the pace of rate rises after that or signal that they are likely to raise rates to even higher levels early next year than previously anticipated by policy makers and investors," he writes.

The market is pricing in an 11% chance of 100 bps on November 2. The terminal top is priced at 4.92% now, suggesting a chance of the Fed going above 4.75-5.00% in Q1.

The US dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term is strong today but hasn't made new highs since immediately after the report.