Deutsche Bank issued the forecast prior to the vomitous retail sales data:
Australia December retail sales -3.9% m/m (expected -0.3%)
The Australian consumer clearly responding to RBA rate hikes so far, housing prices softening, and rising inflation. The December data is the worst ever m/m apart from COVID times and the GST (VAT) introduction.
DB forecast Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes in those four months listed above, to take the rate from its current 3.1% to 4.1%.
The cycle so far:
The next meeting is on February 7. With monthly inflation north of 8% it s difficult to see the RBA not hiking again. Others will disagree.
