Deutsche Bank say that recent storms and port strikes are going to make incoming economic data reports more difficult to interpret.
- “We are in for a period of data heavily influenced by recent storms and strikes."
- “So this will likely make it a complicated few weeks for markets and the Fed.”
DB note that the CPI data last week, and the huge jobs report the week before, changed the expectations of what's to come from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):
- “The view I’ve felt most certain of was that the market was massively overpricing the perfect scenario of smooth enough data that the Fed would be able to serenely cut rates back below 3% without a recession”
- “If we don’t get a recession, it’s hard to see how rates can be cut anywhere near as aggressively as this.”
