The Non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, 7 June 2024 is expected to show the unemployment rate steady at 3.9%
Deutsche Bank analysts point out that if the jobless rate does come in below 4% it'll be the “the longest stretch of sub-4% unemployment since the early 1950s”:
- US unemployment was below 4% for 27 consecutive months in the late 1960s
- the last time there was a run of 28 months or more was the early 1950s (it was 35 months)
- “Time will tell if the early-1950s offer a good parallel, but if these similarities do hold, there could be a lot of scope for optimism. In particular, low unemployment has often been a spur to productivity growth, as firms find it more difficult to hire workers and become more focused on helping their existing staff to be more productive. Given the growth of AI in our own time, this suggests there could well be some upside risk to economic growth over the years ahead.”
