DB on key risks ahead for the second half of 2024, with a more general warning mixed in that "surprises can be just around the corner”
- Economic data has been surprising on the downside over recent weeks
- Investors are becoming more nervous about fiscal policy given higher levels of debt and interest rates
- Inflation lingering above target
- Monetary policy lags that are still working through
On that final point, DB add:
- central banks such as the Fed are still running down their balance sheets
- fixed-rate borrowers are refinancing at higher rates
