It's a packed data agenda for the session ahead, with most of the focus on the privately surveyed manufacturing PMI from China for June.
China has two primary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys - the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.
The official PMI survey was out last week, for manufacturing and services. Manufacturing remains wallowing on the doldrums in contraction under 50:
While the NBS' PMIs cover large and state-owned companies, the Caixin PMI survey covers more small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China's private sector. Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey. Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China's manufacturing sector.
The Caixin survey is expected to show the manufacturing sector edging into expansion.
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You'll also notice a monthly inflation reading from Australia. For June. Last week we for the May monthly inflation print:
The May reading was from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Today's is from a private survey. The ABS survey of monthly inflation is a new indicator, the TD/MI indicator has been around a lot longer and is a respected survey. Its also ahead of the ABS survey, that is we'll get the June reading today. Inflation in Australia is still elevated. The Reserve Bank of Australia meet Tuesday, 4 July and there is a strong prospect of a cash rate hike.
Indeed, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Bullock spoke the week before last, and she was hawkish indeed:
- RBA Dep Gov Bullock says employment and economy need to grow below trend for a while
- RBA Dep Gov Bullock says higher rates are the only tool the RBA has to curb inflation
Australia has 4 large commercial banks, a sampling of them shows analysts are tipping a hike tomorrow from the RBA:
- ANZ still expect a rate rise from the RBA next week, a +25bp cash rate hike
- After Australia's better CPI data yesterday NAB still expect a July RBA rate hike
- Westpac reaffirms its forecst for a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on July 4
This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.
