There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:
- Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
- Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
- Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
and we get one more today in Asia:
- 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".
Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.
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As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.
From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)
- its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
- is calculated by the Bank of Japan
Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.
The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers
- its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
- raw materials like metals and chemicals
- semi-finished goods
- and finished products
- different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
- it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
- additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods
The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:
- If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.
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From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.
In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.
While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
- I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.
