It's a positive start to the week for risk and that is continuing today. Commodity currencies are leading gains in FX while oil is up over 1% to back above $70. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are maintaining the bounce from yesterday with 10-year yields up another 1.7 bps to 1.45%.
In terms of overall sentiment and the bond market outlook, this chart remains key:
In the grand scheme of things this week, the market is still "soul searching" as we await the verdict on the omicron variant. As such, the data and headlines are key in determining that. But all things considered, we may have to wait another week before we get more news on vaccine efficacy - which is probably the important detail in this latest saga.
Looking ahead today, no news is goods is arguably going to be the theme the market will be running with as it has done yesterday.
0645 GMT - Switzerland November unemployment rate
Swiss labour market conditions are estimated to reflect further improvement as the economy picks up, in a similar trend across the globe.
0700 GMT - UK November Halifax house prices
House prices in the UK is estimated to push higher last month, with demand conditions still rather robust despite the stamp duty holiday expiration. It is perhaps a sign of buyers rushing before the BOE hikes rates.
0700 GMT - Germany October industrial production data
Factory output in Germany is expected to show a light bounce after a dismal September reading. However, just be mindful that amid supply bottlenecks and capacity constraints, risks to production are tilted to the downside.
0745 GMT - France October trade balance data
Overall trade conditions have improved in recent months but still working gradually towards pre-pandemic levels as a trend.
0800 GMT - Switzerland November foreign currency reserves
A proxy read on FX interventions by the SNB, though the weekly sight deposits data perhaps gives a better feel of things.
1000 GMT - Eurozone Q3 GDP figures second estimate
The preliminary report can be found here. Amid omicron worries and surging inflation pressures, the outlook to Q1 next year is the focal point so don't expect to gather much from this release.
1000 GMT - Germany December ZEW survey current conditions, outlook
Overall economic conditions and the outlook are estimated to decline heading into year-end, with supply bottlenecks, rising inflation and virus worries all part of the mix.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
