The single biggest question for the oil market in 2024 is whether US producers will stop pumping more. Early returns are somewhat encouraging for the bulls with the EIA estimating shale production down 900 bps in February after a 600 bpd drop in January.
Those are minuscule moves but anything close to flat would be bullish for oil, though I caution against extrapolating from winter numbers. That said, this latest freeze-off will certainly impact January production, which will come in lower than estimates.
WTI is down 51-cents to $72.15 with the market entirely immune to Red Sea drama.
