EUR/USD is down 0.4% to a session low of 1.1010 as the euro has nearly wiped out its jump from last week, which came on the back of peace hopes initially here.
There are some modest expiries rolling off today at 1.1000-10 so that could be a factor attracting price action but for now, sellers are also back in near-term control on a push below the 200-hour moving average (blue line) @ 1.1042.
Since the bounce from early March near 1.0800, the euro has been finding itself settling in a bit of a series of higher highs and higher lows:
The pattern is not exactly well-defined in my view and I would argue that the pair is still facing general choppiness as a whole.
It remains to be seen how buyers will want to work with that considering the worsening economic backdrop in Europe and the fact that the ECB remains rather torpid in angling towards tighter policy against inflation.
Meanwhile, the US is also having to face a gradually slowing/worsening outlook but at least the Fed remains adamant that it can stick to a tighter policy path. The caveat though is that a lot of that has been priced in by the market already and any walk back by the Fed on rate hike pricing will be a material headwind for the dollar in general.
The push and pull could see the pair range between 1.0900 to near 1.1200 for the time being.
