- Prior 51.5
- Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 46.6 expected
- Prior 46.1
- Composite PMI 51.4 vs 50.7 expected
- Prior 50.3
The services print is a 11-month high while the manufacturing print is a 4-month low. But at the balance, the Eurozone economy is seen expanding at its quickest pace in nearly a year in April. While economic conditions are at least improving, price pressures are seen intensifying slightly on the month. HCOB notes that:
“The eurozone got off to a good start in the second quarter. The Composite HCOB Flash PMI took a significant step into expansionary territory. This was propelled by the services sector, where activity has gathered further steam. Considering various factors including the HCOB PMIs, our GDP forecast suggests a 0.3% expansion in the second quarter, matching the growth rate seen in the first quarter, both measured against the preceding quarter.
“Several factors indicate that the recovery in the private service sector, which dominates the entire economy, is poised to be sustained. Firstly, there has been a positive momentum in new business for the past two months, which translates also into a bolder hiring policy. Secondly, the higher increases in output prices are not only a response to the faster rise in input costs but also reflect the confidence of service providers in setting prices. Lastly, the recovery is occurring simultaneously in the two most significant economies of the Eurozone, Germany and France. This suggests the presence of common factors such as lower inflation and higher wages, which bolster purchasing power and contribute to the resurgence in the service sector.
“The PMI figures are poised to test the ECB's willingness to cut interest rates in June. Accelerated increases in input costs, likely driven not only by higher oil prices but also, more concerningly, by higher wages, are a cause for scrutiny. Concurrently, service sector companies have raised their prices at a faster rate than in March, fuelling expectations that services inflation will persist. Despite these factors, we expect the ECB to cut rates in June. However, we doubt that the central bank will adopt a "pragmatic speed", as suggested by François Villeroy de Galhau from the ECB. Instead, we expect a more cautious approach.
“The best that can be said about the manufacturing sector in the eurozone is that production fell at the slowest rate for a year in April and that job losses have eased somewhat. Otherwise, the picture remains rather bleak, with new business continuing to decline rapidly, along with order backlogs. Weak demand for industrial products is also evident in the sharp decrease in the volume of purchased inputs and the absence of a turnaround in the inventory cycle. Although we anticipate a recovery in the manufacturing sector by the middle of the year, it's essential to consider structural factors influencing the sector. China, whose companies are increasingly becoming a competitor for local industrial companies, particularly in the area of high-tech products, is likely to be a significant factor in this regard.”
