- Composite PMI 49.9 vs 49.4 prelim
A slight revision higher to the initial estimates as outlined by the French and German readings earlier. However, the services print is still the weakest in 6 months with the composite reading - lowest in 17 months - reaffirming that the euro area economy has dipped into a marginal contraction in July. Here's a cursory glance at the readings today:
S&P Global notes that:
“The eurozone economic outlook has darkened at the start of the third quarter, with the latest survey data signalling a contraction of GDP in July. Soaring inflation, rising interest rates and supply worries – notably for energy – have led to the biggest drops in output and demand seen for a almost a decade, barring pandemic lockdown months.
“A much hoped-for surge in consumer spending after the easing of pandemic restrictions is being thwarted as households grow increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living, meaning discretionary spending is being diverted to essentials such as food, utility bills and loan repayments. At the same time, business spending is being subdued by increased caution and risk aversion amid the gloomier economic outlook.
“Some encouragement can be gleaned from the drop in price pressures signalled by the survey, which should feed through to lower inflation in the coming months. However, this easing of inflation could fail to materialise if energy prices spike higher as we head towards the winter. Companies are also concerned that energy restrictions may also potentially lead to further constraints on economic activity, leading to new supply problems and fueling further price hikes.”