EUR/USD forecast - break below 1.05 more likely than a sustained move above 1.10

Deutsche Bank with a EUR/USD forecast:

• We maintain our view that the EUR/USD range will look similar to last year's with a break below 1.05 more likely than a sustained move above 1.10

Deutsche Bank cite, on the USD:

• high yield for the US
• dollar benefits from an environment of subdued FX volatility
• risks towards far greater divergence favouring the Fed
• the dollar as a hedge to geopolitical deterioration is strong
• both sides of US politics emphasising tariffs rather than a weak dollar policy on approach to the election

And on the euro side:

• European growth improvement already anticipated by market consensus
• ECB earlier easing vs. to the Fed
• subdued global growth recovery
• German structural challenges, ongoing fiscal policy tightening

Subdued volatility is right.