The push higher after the US CPI data was tempered by resistance from the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 1.0361 and that remains a notable level to watch before the weekend. If anything else, a slide back under 1.0300 would be a bit of a blow for buyers after having seized the opportunity for a move higher after some consolidation around 1.0100 to 1.0283 (50.0 Fib retracement level) in the weeks prior.
For today, just be mindful that there is a large set of expiries for the pair at 1.0300-10 worth roughly €2.8 billion. That could see price action be more sticky, especially with broader markets contemplating what to do with the data points that we have had over the past week and how that will impact the Fed outlook.
The dollar is trading more mixed today as it holds gains against the euro, yen, pound and franc. But it is lagging against the commodity currencies with equities showing a little bit more appetite on the day. S&P 500 futures are now up 19 points, or 0.5%, but bond yields are also holding higher and 10-year Treasury yields are inching above its 100-day moving average of 2.88%. That tells us this isn't quite just a straightforward reaction in looking towards a Fed pivot.
Going back to th euro, the lack of poise isn't quite a good signal in the big picture. The single currency outlook is still rather bleak and it may only be a matter of time before market players start to look for shorts again - after settling on what to do with dollar sentiment that is.
