These are critical states for the election:
Preliminary results of Michigan exit poll:
- Trump wins 42% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 56%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 53% of voters without college degrees, Harris wins 44%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 48% of voters age 45+, Harris wins 50%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 50% of white women voters, Harris wins 48%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 58% of white male voters, Harris wins 40%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 53% of white voters, Harris wins 44%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 43% of voters age 65+, Harris wins 55%; Trump share down 6 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 45% of women voters, Harris wins 53%; Trump share up 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 50% of voters under age 45, Harris wins 47%; Trump share up 5 pts from 2020
Preliminary results of Wisconsin exit poll:
- Trump wins 41% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 57%; Trump share unchanged from 2020
- Trump wins 54% of voters without college degrees, Harris wins 44%; Trump share up 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 47% of voters under age 45, Harris wins 51%; Trump share up 5 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 51% of voters age 45+, Harris wins 48%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 42% of voters age 65+, Harris wins 58%; Trump share down 11 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 46% of white women voters, Harris wins 53%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 59% of white male voters, Harris wins 40%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 53% of white voters, Harris wins 46%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 44% of women voters, Harris wins 55%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020
Preliminary results of Arizona exit poll:
- Trump wins 52% of white women voters, Harris wins 47%; Trump share unchanged from 2020
- Trump wins 48% of women voters, Harris wins 51%; Trump share unchanged from 2020
- Trump wins 52% of voters age 45+, Harris wins 45%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 45% of voters under age 45, Harris wins 53%; Trump share up 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 53% of voters age 65+, Harris wins 45%; Trump share up 3 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 54% of white voters, Harris wins 45%; Trump share up 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 56% of white male voters, Harris wins 42%; Trump share up 4 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 44% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 53%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 58% of voters without college degrees, Harris wins 44%; Trump share up 2 pts from 2020
There is a clear pattern across many exit polls of Trump doing better this time with younger voters but worse with older voters. Trump has also made further inroads among those without college degrees.
Overall, I think Trump should feel good about Arizona here but polling had already shown that. Michigan and Wisconsin are harder reads but look good for Harris.
