The firm forecasts an increase in core consumer price inflation by 0.32% on the month in November, largely due to “swings in volatile components”. Elaborating on that, BofA says:
“We expect used car prices to increase because wholesale prices temporarily rose in both August and September amid concerns over the UAW strike. Meanwhile, we are looking for an increase in lodging away from home largely due to expectations for reversion to the mean after a large drop in October.”
That being said, they continue to expect that the data should reaffirm evidence of disinflation outside of the volatile swing factors. And if so, that would "broadly support our expectation for the first Fed cut to not come until June". BofA says that while markets have moved to price in a likelihood of a March cut, they think that such a move would be too early given the current labour market and inflation outlook.
However, "if data (labor, activity, and inflation) comes in materially weaker than we expect, then a cut as soon as March is a possibility.”
