Feds Barkin at CEO Summit
- Revised consumer spending data is more consistent with what I am hearing on the ground
- I'm hearing consumers slowing down, but not falling off the table
- Skeptical that price setters at this point have gone back to where they were pre-Covid
- 5.2% GDP tells companies that they can still try to raise prices
- The goods inflation has clearly come down. Then that of that is basically back to pre--Covid levels
- While I think that entry rates have clearly come down, but housing inflation is still going up
- A lot of services prices are still going up driven by wages
- I am still in the "looking to be convinced category" that inflation is coming down
- Not willing to take another rate hike off the table.
- Want the option of doing more on rates if inflation flairs again.
- Markets have a different forecast than me on inflation
- I believe inflation will be stubborn then we'd like
- Talking about rate cuts is premature
- We do hope the messages we send go into the financial conditions in the markets.
- Try not to get overly focused on the financial conditions in the markets.
- Market bets on 4 rate cuts next year might be based on expectations for soft landing. I hope they are right.
- My forecast is that inflation will come down but stubbornly
- We will in the end have some kind of slowdown
- To lower rates you'd need to be confident inflation is headed back to 2%.
Barkins comments are a bit more cautious on inflation and therefore cautious on the rate path. He is not convinced that no more rate hikes are needed.
