- Dockworkers strike was predicted, retailers have been stockpiling
- Retailers have about two weeks of extra inventory, there will be an effect afterwards
- Dockworkers strike could have supply-chain effects, that could mean some increase in prices
- We've largely gotten inflation down
- The new inflation numbers are at the Fed's target, the labor market is at full employment
- 25 vs 50 bps not as important as getting rates down over the next 12 months
- There has been a 'partizanization' of consumer sentiment readings, making them less useful
He's giving himself a round of applause here. I also wonder if stockpiling didn't skew some of the data before the strike.
As for the partizanization, this chart of UMich confidence speaks for itself:
