FOMC Dot Plot and Central Tendencies from March 2022

The Dot Plot for March 2022 shows the median rate at the end of 2022 at 1.9% vs 0.9% in December. That is seven hikes in 2022 which is congruent with the market but above expectations from the Fed.

In 2023 the expectations are for 2.8% vs 1.6% median (and 11 of 18 at 1.9%) in December.. They also see 2.8% in 2024.

The Dot Plot in December showed:

The table of the central tendencies from March 2022 now shows:

Summary of central tendencies from March compared to December now shows for 2022:

• GDP lowered to 2.5% to 3.0% from 3.6% to 4.5% in 2022
• Unemployment rate near unchange near unchangedd at 3.4% to 3.6% from 3.4% to 3.7% in 2022
• PCE inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term much higher at 4.1% to 4.7% from 2.2% to 3.0% in 2022
• Core PCE inflation much higher at 3.9% to 4.4% from 2.5% to 3.0% in 2022

In 2023, they see:

• GDP near unchanged at 2.1% to 2.5%
• unemployment rate near unchanged at 3.3% to 3.6%
• PCE inflation higher at 2.3% to 3% from 2.1% to 2.5% in December
• core PCE inflation higher at 2.4% to 3% from 2.1% to 2.4% in December

The chair and the Fed members are turning up the inflation fighting fight.