Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Apr: USD moves lower in quiet trading day

• Private survey of oil inventory shows larger weekly headline draw than was expected
• Major US stock indices close little changed on the day
• WTI crude all future settle at $80.86
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen to deliver remarks on US China economic relationship
• Fed Bowman: We are watching very closely for potential signs of more bank stress
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 1Q growth comes in unchanged at 2.5%
• More from BOCs Macklem: Sees possibility possibility for a soft landing
• Major European indices close higher
• Bank of Canada's Macklem: We see further declines in inflation ahead
• Feds Bostic: Inflation still remains too high
• Goldman Sachs sees terminal ECB rate at 3.75%
• The USD is lower but off the lows for the day. What next?
• Feds Bullard: Sees restrictive policy rate between 5.5% and 5.75 range
• US housing starts for March 1.420 million versus 1.400 million estimate
• Canada March CPI 4.3% y/y versus 4.3% expected
• The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: UK wages run hot, dollar rebound faces setback
• Bitcoin puts behind yesterday's setback in quick burst back above $30,000

The USD is ending the day as the weakest of the major currencies in what was a ho-hum trading day. The GBP and the EUR area the strongest.

Looking at the ranges (see table below) of some of the major currency pairs, the low to high trading ranges were all lower than the averages over the last 22 days (about a month of trading). If you discounted the GBPUSD, the ranges were all less than 79% of normal (the AUDUSD had a range that was 79% of the 22-day range). ON the other extreme the USDCHF range was just 45% of normal, USDCD was 51% and the USDJPY was just 62%.

Some of the cross currency pairs were also well off the normal ranges. The EURJPY was only 44% of normal and the GBPJPY was 52%.

So volatility was limited today.

That lack of volatility was also evident in the US stock and bond markets.

Looking at the closing stock level, the closes were near unchanged, while the volatility index moved to the lowest level since early 2022. The closing levels for stocks show:

• Dow -10.55 points or -0.03% at 33976.64
• S&P up 3.55 points or +0.09% at 4154.86
• Nasdaq down -4.32 points or -0.04% at 12153.40

The Vix index (volatility index) is trading at 16.83 with a low of 16.58. That is the lowest since January 2, 2022.

In the US debt market, yields are mixed above and below unchanged:

• 2 year yield 4.203%, up 1.5 basis points
• 5 year 3.680%, down -1.3 basis points
• 10 year 3.577%, -1.3 basis points
• 30 year 3.78*%, -1.6 basis points

Looking at other markets:

• Spot gold is trading up $10 or 0.5% at 2004.68 as it reacts to the lower USD
• Spot silver is up $0.13 or 0.55% at $25.18
• Crude oil is little changed on the day at $80.91
• Bitcoin pushed back above $30000 and is trading about $1000 from this time yesterday at $30422

Some technical views:

• EURUSD. The EURUSD is trading between the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The 100 hour MA is up at 1.0992. The 200 hour MA is down at 1.09495. The closing level for the day is near 1.0973. In the new trading day, traders will be looking for a break and run outside one of those extremes
• GBPUSD: The GBPUSD move higher today but stalled the rally between it's 100 and 200 hour MAs. The 100 hour MA is at 1.2450. The 200 hour MA is at 1.2436> The price high moved to 1.2449 before backing off and moving back below the 100 hour MA. The current price is at 1.2426 at the close. Staying below the MAs keeps the sellers more in control.
• USDCAD: The USDCAD is also trading between key MAs heading into the new trading day. For it the 200 day MA is above at 1.2402 while the 100 hour MA is at 1.33754. The current price is at 1.3390. Traders will be looking for a break and run in the new trading day.
• NZDUSD: The NZDUSD has the 100 and 200 hour MA converged at 0.6226. The high for the day reached 0.6223 and found willing sellers against the MA levels. The price is trading near 0.6212 into the new trading day. Sellers remain more in control. It would take a move above 0.6226 to increase the buyers bias. Absent that, and the sellers remain in control.