The USD is ending the day as the weakest of the major currencies after weaker Consumer confidence and Richmond Fed survey data disappointed to the downside.

The Conference Board confidence came in at 98.7 well off the 104.0 estimate. It was the biggest one month drop since August 2021. Looking at the present and expectations indices:

  • Present Situation Index 124.3 vs. 134.4 last month
  • Expectations Index 81.7 vs 82.5 last month.

The expectations although lower, remained above the 80.0 level for the 3rd month in a row which is often looked at as a defining point for a recession if it goes below.

Looking at the Richmond Fed, it came in at -21 vs -13 estimate. That is the lowest level going back to the Covid period. Employment fell to -22 vs -15 last month. Shipments fell to -18 from -15 estimate. Prices paid also rose to 3.36 from 2.45 last month but prices received did fall to 1.57 from 1.87. New order improved but at -23 vs -26 last month, they both remain weak in that regional survey.

Looking at the % changes of the major currencies vs each other the NZD, CAD and AUD are the strongest. Earlier today, China stimulated their economy by announcing several expansionary measures. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the reserve requirements for banks by 50 basis points to unlock more liquidity. To support the struggling property market, the government will reduce mortgage rates on existing loans, while also planning 500 billion yuan ($70.8 billion) in liquidity support for local stocks. These actions follow the PBOC's recent cut to a short-term repo rate, as officials work to address persistent disinflation and a prolonged downturn in the property market, which is hampering the growth of the world’s second-largest economy. The stock markets in China and Hong Kong each rose over 4%

The weakest of the majors was led by the USD followed by the JPY. Below is a look at the % changes of the major currencis vs each other.

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EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading to a new intraday high of 1.11761 going into the close. That took the price above the high from yesterday at 1.11665 before it fell sharply to a low of 1.1082. The high from Friday at 1.1181 and the high from last week at 1.1188 would be the next targets followed by the highs from August 23 and August 26 near 1.1200.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD stretched to and then through, the 1.3400 and in the process continues to move away from the last target at 1.3358. That remains a close risk level for short-term traders. The price of the GBPUSD based against the 1.3358 in the early NY session. That was a positive technially for the buyers from a technical perspective and helped contribute to the upside today technically. It would take a move back below that level now to hurt the bullish bias. The next target comes near 1.3483.

USDJPY: The USDJPY is dipping below the 100-hour MA and the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September high at 143.38 and traded down to a new low at 143.17. Traders will be looking for more momentum below the dual technical levels at 143.38.

In the US stock market today, the S&P and Dow closed at new record levels once again. The NASDAQ was the biggest gainer with a gain of 0.56%

  • Dow industrial average, + 0.20%
  • S&P, +0.25%
  • Nasdaq, +56%
  • Russell 2000 +0.17%

In the US debt market, yields started the day with yields higher once again, but started to erode those gains starting with the data dump. Near the close:

  • 2 year, 3.537%, -3.8 bps
  • 5 year 3.473%, -2.3 bps
  • 10 year 3.733%, -0.4 bps
  • 30 year 4.089%, +0.8 bps

In other markets:

  • Crude oil, rose $1.02 or 1.47% at $71.40
  • Gold surged another $34 on the back of the lower USD to $2663.03. A new record high was reached
  • Silver surges $1.53 or 5.0% at $32.19.
  • Bitcoin is higher and back above $64,000 to $64,221.