Looking at the Monday trading from a broader perspective the low to high trading ranges were limited to start the week. Comparing to the average trading range over the last month of trading for the major currency pairs, it shows:

  • EURUSD 47 pips vs 60 pip average
  • GBPUSD 43 pips vs 77 pip average
  • USDJPY 55 pips vs 93 pip average
  • USDCHF 34 pips vs 61 pip average
  • USDCAD 38 pips vs 65 pip average
  • AUDUSD 36 pips vs 51 pip average
  • NZDUSD 33 pips vs 51 pip average.

All are well off the average indicative of indifferent price action.

In the North American session, the ranges were even more confined:

  • EURUSD 30 pips
  • GBPUSD 28 pips
  • USDJPY 29 pips
  • USDCHF 23 pips
  • USDCAD 25 pips
  • AUDUSD 27 pips
  • NZDUSD 18 pips

That's not a lot to trade on.

Overall, the EUR is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies.ECB President Christine Lagarde discussed the current economic climate and the outlook for inflation. She noted that while there are increasing signs of economic growth bottoming out, with some forward-looking indicators suggesting a pickup later in the year, inflation remains a significant concern. Despite strong wage pressures, Lagarde pointed out that the disinflationary process is expected to continue, driven by the fading impact of past upward shocks and the effects of tight financing conditions. The ECB's goal is to sustainably achieve a 2% inflation target, a challenge compounded by labor cost increases being partly absorbed by profits rather than being fully passed onto consumers. Lagarde emphasized the importance of the ECB's restrictive monetary policy in combating inflation, alongside the need to prevent a wage-price spiral through firmly anchored longer-term inflation expectations.

The AUD (and the NZD) is the weakest. The USD is marginally higher/mixed.

forex

The economic calendar was limited and Fedspeak took a hiatus from the slew of speakers last week. US New home sales annualized came in weaker at 0.661M vs 0.680M estimates (and down from 0.664M last month). The Dallas Fed manufacturing index was better than last month at -11.30 vs -27.40 last month, but was still negative on the month

The US treasury auctioned both 2 and 5-year notes with average to below average demand. The US treasury will auction 7 year notes tomorrow.

The big release for the week will be the core PCE data to be released on Thursday. The expectations are for 0.4% for the month, but some are tilting to a 0.3% gain. Any little less gain helps.

Bitcoin today surged higher with the price extending to a high of $54,969. That is the highest level since December 2021. The low price over the weekend was at $50,909, more than $4000 lower (or 7.8% lower).

In the US debt market today, the yield started the day marginally lower by about a basis point, but is ending the ay with gains especially in the shorter end. The auctions did not help

  • 2-year yield, 4.731%, +4.1 basis points
  • 5 year yield, 4.315%, +3.1 basis points
  • 10 year yield 4.281%, +2.1 basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.397%, +1.7 basis points

Looking at other markets,

  • Oil moved higher and currently trades $1.11 higher or 1.46% at $77.60
  • Gold is down by -$4.73 or -0.21% at $2031.01
  • Silver is down -$0.43 or -1.90% at $22.50

Thanks for the support today. Good fortune with your trading.