- US stocks close modestly higher
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs draw expected
- Bitcoin is back above $70,000
- Treasury Secretary Yellen:Treasury never tries to time market in debt management
- Crude oil futures settle at $73.25
- US State Department says Israel is ready to implement a cease-fire deal
- Bank of Canada rate decision: A cut of 25 basis points is expected
- European major indices in the day lower
- Former head of ECB Trichet: Expects a 25 basis point cut from the ECB
- US factory orders for April 0.7% versus 0.6% expected
- JOLTs job openings for April 8.059M vs 8.355M estimate. Lowest level since February 2021
- Dep Treas.Adeyemo: We expect inflation to continue to come down
- Kickstart the FX trading day for June 4 w/a technical look at EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD
- Hamas senior official: Israel is not serious about reaching a deal in Gaza
- The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Risk-off wave strikes markets
The JOLTs job openings data today although old news as it is for April, continues to paint a weakening picture for the jobs market (lowest since February 2021). The US jobs report will be announced on Friday. Markets are sensitive to weakening trends in employment.
The JOLTs number showed openings fell to 8.059M vs 8.355M estimate. On Friday, the US non-farm jobs are forecast to come in at 185K. That comes after a weaker than expected number last months at 175K
Yields moved lower for the fourth consecutive day. After double-digit points yesterday, the new yield fell another 7.2 basis points to 4.329% today. Last Wednesday the yield reached 4.64% before rotating lower (down 32 basis points). The markets seem to be tilting toward something weaker on Friday.
Looking at the yield curve today:
- 2 year yield 4.774%, -4.3 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.346%, -7.0 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.327%, -7.4 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.475%, 7.5 basis points.
Despite the run higher in yields, the US dollar was mixed today.
The USD moved higher vs the AUD, CAD and NZD as commodities moved lower pushing those commodity focused currencies versus the USD lower.
- The price of oil is down from $80.60 on Wednesday of last week. The price today reached $72.48. That's a decline of over 10% in five trading days.
- Copper prices have also started to move lower and is down -12.51% from its peak back on May 20th
- Silver prices tumbled -4.16% today to $21.48. It reached a high in May of $32.51 and is down -9.6% .
- Gold is down 5.48% since peaking on May 20
The USD did fall vs the JPY today after the Bank of Japan officials said that they might look to lower bond buying, and rates may need to go higher as well. That helped to weaken the USDJPY (stronger JPY) and all the JPY crosses today, The USD also fell vs the CHF as the USDCHF retraced back to the March 21 levels just before the Swiss National Bank surprise interest rate cut.
Below is a snapshot of the strongest vs the weakest of the major currencies as the NY sessions winds down for the day.
The US stocks did rebound modestly vs the major indices today.
- Dow, up 0.36%
- S&P, up 0.15%
- Nasdaq, up 0.17%
However, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell by -1.25% as investor fear growth vs the benefits of lower rates for that index.
Tomorrow the ADP job will be released at 8:15 AM ET with expectations of 173K. At 9:45 AM ET, the Bank of Japan is expected coverage by 25 basis points (80% chance of a cut). At 10:30 AM ET, Tiff Macklem will be holding a press conference. Services PMI data will be announced at 10 AM with focus on the employment component (along with prices).
