- Biden: Announces ban on Russian oil imports
- Putin signs a vague decree on limiting Russia exports
- Ukraine Zelenskyy: We do not want to lose our country
- Ukraine NATO headline appears to be reversing markets but it's old news
- Russia announces 'silence period' in Ukraine on March 9
- US international trade balance for January -$89.7B vs -$87.1B estimate
- Canada January trade balance +2.62B vs +1.60B expected
- US wholesale inventories +0.8% vs +0.8% expected
- The nickel market is broken. LME says doesn't anticipate opening before Friday
- EU Commission floats ambitious energy plan
- US February NFIB small business optimism index 95.7 vs 97.1 prior
Markets:
- Gold up $52 to $2051
- WTI crude oil up $4.83 to $124.23
- US 10-year yields up 11 bps to 1.86%
- S&P 500 down 13 points to 4195
- EUR leads, NZD lags
The headlines ran the show today but the headlines didn't always make sense.
The news of the US banning Russian oil exports (and the UK as well) wasn't exactly a shock but it doesn't take much to get oil moving. It spiked to $129.44 but couldn't break Monday's opening high. That move also set off another round about growth and inflation, hitting risk trades and dragging down the euro on energy insecurity.
European officials released a rough plan for getting off Russian energy but it features a handful of very ambitious moves that might not be realistic.
The most-telling headline was probably the retread of Zelensky saying NATO wasn't a priority anymore. He's been saying that for a bit and he notably said it late yesterday in an interview with ABC. That comment appeared to get a fresh life after AFP pushed it as 'breaking news' and risk trades jumped. It's that kind of market.
In any case, much of that bounce was snuffed out shortly afterwards on the vague Putin decree to ban exports of some raw materials. The decree is deliberately vague and says it will be limited to commodities and countries to be determined in two days. If the countries are in Europe and the commodities are natural gas and oil; then look out.
FX was largely driven by an ebb and flow around those two headlines; with the euro gaining on the first and giving it back on the latter and much the same elsewhere. One exception was the loonie, which fell to the lowest since December with USD/CAD at 1.2901 at the high and finishing near there.
A 10-year auction is the main highlight on Wednesday's economic calendar.
