- Canada February CPI 2.8% y/y vs 3.1% expected
- US housing starts for February 1.521M vs 1.425M estimate
- US used vehicle prices continue to slide, led by EVs
- Atlanta Fed US Q1 GDPNow 2.1% vs 2.3% prior
- Goldman: Fed on track for a June cut; we now expect 3 cuts in 2024 instead of 4
- ECBs Kazaks: He is comfortable with current market pricing on rates
- US treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.542%
- Fed preview: Ignore the dots, focus on Powell
- Jansen Huang interview on CNBC fails to kickstart the stock. Technicals tilt lower in ST.
Markets:
- Gold down $2 to $2157
- US 10-year yields down 4.8 bps to 4.29%
- WTI crude up 53-cents to $83.25
- S&P 500 up 0.6%
- USD leads, JPY lags
The Bank of Japan decision continued to reverberate in a strong 'sell the fact' reaction for the yen. Perhaps the market was looking for more of a commitment to a hiking cycle but corporate Japan won't be happy with both higher interest rates and a weaker currency. USD/JPY initially stalled at 150.65 early in US trading and slipped to 150.30 but quickly found its footing as risk sentiment improved and rallied as high as 150.96 before running into offers at the figure. Those gains were despite 4-5 bps declines in yields across the curve.
It was notable that short-dated US rates fell after softer Canadian CPI. Perhaps there is some kind of North American read-through there as the market continues to question what's really driving stronger US inflation, particularly in light of more softness in US used auto sales today.
As for CAD, it fell 40 pips to the lows of the years initially, but only marginally. It steadied from there and then reverted back to pre-data levels with much help from oil and equities.
The euro and pound both finished basically unchanged in a reversal of some decent losses earlier (50 pips in GBP/USD). Again, it was a turn in tech stocks led by NVDA and AAPL that added fuel to the fire.
Of course, tomorrow is FOMC day so much of the moves today are built around benign expectations for Powell tomorrow. As always, the volatility will follow. See you then.
