- Canada August employment +39.9K vs +15.0K expected
- US July wholesale sales +0.8% vs -0.2% expected
- US July consumer credit outstanding +10.4B vs +16.0B expected
- US household net worth rises to record $154.28 trillion - Fed
- ECB rate hike odds rise to 38% as talk of a hawkish push continues
- Fed's Barr says 'a long way' from a central bank digital currency
- Manheim August used vehicle index +0.2% m/m
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 513 vs 512 prior
Markets:
- Gold flat at $1918
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.26%
- WTI crude oil down 48-cents to $87.35
- S&P 500 up 0.2%
- CAD leads, JPY lags
The euro ends the day flat but it certainly wasn't quiet as some hawkish ECB sources reports ahead of next week's meeting, along with some lumpy flows led to a sharp rise to 1.0740 from 1.0700. However that was countered by a selloff in Treasuries later and the move fully retraced as USD steadily after Europe dropped off.
Earlier, the yuan fell to a 10-month low and that may have been behind some of the USD buying. The idea is that China may let the yuan go to boost manufacturing, knocking out one source of USD selling.
USD/JPY steadily rose throughout the day, hitting a session high of 147.86 late on rising yields. That was right in line with the highs of the past two days so there's some resistance forming ahead of 148.00.
Cable tried to make a move above 1.2500 but was quickly beaten back down and finished 40 pips below the figure.
The biggest headline of the day came from Canada, which posted an upside surprise in the jobs department. CAD had fallen to the lowest since March yesterday but came back strongly on the headline in a 50 pip move. Later some of that was pared as the dollar strengthened broadly but the loonie still managed to hang onto some gains.
The pop in CAD initially spread to AUD and NZD in a sign of a thin market but those moves later reversed and both slumped in NY trade.
The Fed blackout starts at midnight so that takes away one source of uncertainty next week but the ECB decision is building up to be a big one. I don't think anyone in Frankfurt knows how it's going to go.
Greg will be back late next week; have a great weekend.
