- Fed's Powell: US economy is envy of the world, I'm going to do everything to keep it there
- US November ISM services 52.1 vs 55.5 expected
- US November ADP employment +146K vs +150K expected
- ECB's Lagarde: Inflation expected to temporarily rise in Q4 and decline next year
- Beige Book: Fed districts deport slight growth, rising business optimism for 2025
- US October factory orders +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Fed's Musalem: Time may be approaching to slow or pause rate cuts
- Fed's Barkin: I'm encouraged by where inflation is headed
- French government loses no-confidence vote
- French President Macron aims to name new Prime Minister swiftly if government falls
- ECB's Nagel: I favor a gradual, cautious approach to rate cuts
- ECB's Makhlouf: Asked about 50 bps cut, says he prefers to move cautiously
- EIA weekly crude oil inventories -5073K vs -671K expected
- US November S&P Global final services PMI 56.1 vs 57.0 prelim
- Canada November S&P Global Services PMI 51.2 vs 50.4 prior
- Canada Q3 labour productivity -0.4% vs -0.2% prior
- OPEC+ might extend cuts to six months but cuts won't be deeper - report
Markets:
- Gold up $6 to $2649
- US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 4.18%
- WTI crude down $1.05 to $68.88
- GBP leads, AUD lags
- S&P 500 up 0.6% to fresh record
There were a series of crosscurrents in markets today and it was a busy day of news. In terms of data, the ISM services number was softer and it weighed on the US dollar broadly. That helped to boost the euro to a session high of 1.0544 and the pound to 1.2721. Those gains faded in part because Powell struck a more-hawkish tone, while the French political news had little effect.
However the dollar bounce ran against the mode in other markets as Treasury yields started the day high and sagged, with 10s falling 10 bps intraday. US stocks were also bid but that didn't lend much support for AUD, which as beaten up in Asian trading.
Eyes are on OPEC+ ahead of tomorrow's meeting but the market is clearly worried as crude fell $1 in US trading. Crack spreads have weakened and that was one factor that was cited.
USD/JPY rebounded after six days of declines and climbed as high as 151.22 but was mostly tracking down in US trade and fell to 150.00 before bouncing from the big figure to 150.64. Powell may have helped firm up that intraday bottom and the Beige Book was slightly better than the prior edition and highlighted post-election optimism.
The crypto market was choppy with some large outperformance in the alt-coins that was later joined by bitcoin as it has another look at $100,000. The nominated SEC commissioner is friendly towards the industry and that likely helped late-day BTC bids.
