- US August Richmond Fed composite index -7 vs -9 prior
- US existing home sales for July 4.07M vs 4.15M estimate
- Fed's Barkin says he won't pre-judge the outcome of the Sept FOMC meeting
- Fed's Barkin: If the US has a recession, it would likely be less-severe one
- Philly Fed August nonmanufacturing index -13.1 vs +1.4 last month
- Goldman Sachs: The dual forces driving the dollar's rise
Markets:
- Gold up $3 to $1896
- WTI crude oil down 48 cents to $79.63
- US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.32%
- NZD leads, EUR lags
- S&P 500 down 12 points, or 0.3%, to 4387
The US dollar strengthened early in North American trading on the usual catalyst: Higher bond yields. That sustained the dollar rally for a period but later, yields gave back gains and fell to session lows. Despite that, the dollar held on as the euro was particularly soft, falling to 1.0844, or a half-cent lower. That was an 80-pip reversal after gains earlier in the day.
Cable was also soft as it finished near the lows of the day and reversed earlier gains.
The market continues to watch China closely and there was talk of 'national team' buying in equities on a late-day pop in Shanghai. That sparked optimism in commodity currencies as AUD and NZD led the way. That sentiment was spurred further by a strong start in US equities but that was later undermined as tech stocks gave back gains and NVDA reversed. Despite that, NZD and AUD held on for gains while CAD finished flat.
USD/JPY was reluctant to have another look at 146.00 and instead spent most of the US session below. It looks like it will take a nudge from Powell or a further run in yields to keep the momentum going.
