- ISM November US services 56.5 vs 53.3 expected
- US S&P Global final November services PMI 46.2 vs 46.1 prelim
- US factory orders for October 1.0% versus 0.7% estimate
- Timiraos: Higher wages could lead officials to consider going above 5% next year
- German finace minister says no more joint EU debt
- Canada October building permits -1.4% vs +3.9% expected
Markets:
- Gold down $31 to $1797
- US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 3.60%
- WTI crude oil down $2.65 to $77.36
- S&P 500 down 71 points to 4003
- USD leads, JPY lags
A good chunk of the recent moves were unwound as the new week got underway. The trend lately has been a lower dollar, lower yields and stronger equities but it was the opposite today.
The main catalyst was a very strong ISM services number and it came after some downbeat commentary in the similar survey from S&P Global, leaving traders more confused than ever.
Despite that, the path of least resistance was buying the dollar as it had been sold down significantly in the past month to relieve overbought conditions. A new debate about if/when the Fed will have to go above 5% is starting on signs that consumers are holding up, or that excess savings remain.
USD/JPY was strongest with a 250 pip gain but even that wasn't enough to reverse the past two days of selling. The time and circumstances reminds me of the time around the 2014 World Cup when you could barely get a 20-pip range in USD/JPY in a week. These are good times in the FX world, though never easy (especially if you're a Japan fan today).
CAD suffered as well on oil though not as much as NZD and AUD in a suggestion that the main driver was USD and the risk trade.
The euro held up surprisingly well despite forecast for more cold weather in Europe, though as you can see from the ticker below, we are heading into the close near the extremes right across the board.
