Markets:

  • CHF leads, NZD lags
  • WTI crude oil up $1.34 to $75.63
  • S&P 500 down 34 points to 3817
  • Gold down $5 to $1787
  • US 10-year yields up 11 bps to 3.59%

There's a visible shift in markets as we stumble towards year end. Economic data and events are less of a factor and flows dominate. There was a large bid for the US dollar into the London fix and it entirely reversed in the following hour. That was the main trading point of the day and underscores what's to come.

Another driver was the stock market . Coming into the trading day, futures were flat but tech began to stumble early and continued to struggle, with the Nasdaq down 1.4% on the day. A number of megacap stocks are at or approaching new lows in a big concern for the market. I strongly suspect that tax loss selling is now at work and coming later than usual. My belief is that many market participants were waiting for Powell to throw a lifeline and instead he tossed a hand grenade.

The selling in equities was tolerated sell by the FX market but the rise in yields was noticeable in the bid in USD/JPY. Some of that was also the reversal of an earlier drop on talk of a BOJ mandate review. The market has evidently concluded that's not coming but yen risks remain high.

The loonie benefited from a boost in oil prices as the market tries to see through the initial pain of China's reopening and digests Friday's announced SPR purchases. There's a growing sense than $70 is the bottom for oil prices, though that could certainly be tested in a tough recession.

FX news wrap Dec 19 2022