- US November non-farm payrolls +216K vs +170K expected
- US December ISM services 50.6 vs 52.6 expected
- Canada December employment 0.1K versus 13.5 K estimate
- Non-farm payrolls reactions: Objects in the rear-view mirror may not be as they seem
- US Factory orders for November 2.6% vs 2.1% estimate
- SEC asked bitcoin ETF issuers to submit final versions of key docs as soon as today
- Fed's Barkin: Labor market fees like it's moving in a steady, softening pattern
- Baker Hughes oil rig count up 1
- Timiraos: Dec non-farm payrolls "doesn't change much of anything for the central bank"
- Yellen: What we're seeing now can be described as a soft landing
Markets:
- WTI crude oil up $1.74 to $73.93
- US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.05%
- Gold up $1 to $2044
- GBP leads, CAD lags
- S&P 500 up 0.2%
Looking at the closing changes in FX, you might be excused for thinking nothing happened today but it was certainly the opposite. The US dollar hit the highs in the moments after non-farm payrolls on a strong headline and lower unemployment but a deeper dive into the data showed it wasn't quite as strong as it looked. That started a retracement that further extended when ISM services missed.
However the bond sellers weren't ready to give up and the initial risk-positive move and USD selling on ISM didn't last. As the day wore on, the mood worsened and the dollar improved.
Ultimately, that left FX and equities right back to where they started the day.
