- EIA boosts 2023 world oil demand growth but cuts 2024 forecast
- Goldman Sachs CEO: The chance of a soft landing has risen very meaningfully
- US sells 10-year notes 4.289% vs 4.289% WI
- Walmart CEO says he feels 'pretty good' about second half
- BP CEO Bernard Looney to resign
- ECB rate hike odds now sit at 50/50
- US August CPI preview: Are we worried about now or later?
Markets:
- Gold down $9 to $1912
- US 10-year yields down 1.6 bps to 4.27%
- WTI crude oil up $1.60 to $88.89
- S&P 500 down 0.5%
- CAD leads, JPY lags
Today's price action largely confirmed that the market is in a wait-and-see mode until we get CPI data and hear from the ECB. The latest leak from the ECB sure sounds like a hike is coming, though it could be a dovish hike. The euro has perked up here late in the day after a sources report saying the 2024 inflation forecast will be bumped above 3%.
FX moves were largely rangebound otherwise, though USD/JPY clawed back some of Monday's losses despite no real help from the bond market. That fits in with the 'buy USD/JPY unless there's a reason not to' mode that's been driving FX all year.
Oil found good bids again and rose to a fresh 10-month high, helping to lift the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD fell 15 pips to 1.3556 and is down more than 130 pips from Monday's high.
Cable was soft early in Europe on weak employment data but clawed some of it back despite a weak risk backdrop. That could be position squaring ahead of tomorrow's all-important CPI report.
