- US November consumer confidence 100.2 vs 100.0 expected
- Canada Q3 GDP +2.9% vs +1.5% expected
- Case-Shiller September US 20-city house price index -1.2% vs -1.2% expected
- OPEC likely to stick with existing policy - report
- OPEC+ said to consider moving Sunday's meeting to virtual (now confirmed)
- Fed discount minutes: Three banks wanted smaller rate hike
- Dallas Fed November services sector outlook -11.0 vs -13.6 prior
- BOE's Bailey: QE hasn't blurred the distiction between monetary and fiscal policy
- Germany November preliminary CPI +10.0% vs +10.4% y/y expected
Markets:
- WTI crude oil up $1.13 to $78.37
- US 10-year yields up 5 bps to 3.75%
- S&P 500 down 8 points to 3963
- Gold up $7 to $1748
- AUD leads, CAD lags
The dollar asserted itself in New York trade for the second day in a row. This time it got some help from rising bond yields, in part due to corporate issuance, including from Amazon. The risk trade looked positive early but faded, then stumbled before righting itself late.
Commodity currencies were strong in Asia on China reopening optimism but about half the moves faded in US trading. Cable completed a 100 pip round trip from yesterday's close and Bailey's dour tone didn't help, though he didn't say much.
In terms of central banks, eyes are on Powell tomorrow.
The curious move on the day was the rout in the loonie, despite higher oil prices and good GDP data. The answer to that question is almost surely M&A flows after RBC bought HSBC's Canadian operations for C$13.5B.
The late USA and England football soccer matches sapped much of the liquidity from the market as the two largest FX centers tuned in. During the event an oil headline from Iraq was misinterpreted, leading to a brief period of volatility but it wasn't a dead market otherwise as the US dollar continued to drift higher.
